Friday, January 28, 2011

Fund switching advice as on 28 Jan 2011

Dear Policyholders,

The market was down by a considerable margin when Nifty closed at 5604 . This is the same level beyond which the Nifty had scaled up to 6200 since the Sept month of 2010. This was the point where I had not allowed you to remain in equity pocket due to my concern for safety. Since almost 6 months have passed and the latest round of results shows growth in sales and profits intact.

In light of above, now you may raise the bar for investing in 'growth fund' even entirely and in accordance with you risk profile. The FY  is to close in two months and the dividends will come to investors in next three months. This will improve your position by roughly 2.5pc. So, by discounting the Nifty by cost of money, your entry will be equal to entering market at almost 4800 level in Feb 10, which by the way the lowest point for the calender year 2010.

Historically speaking, the Sensex was formed in 1978-79 and was given par value of 100. Since then it has doubled itself eight times (taking in to account the dividends recd. also ) ie doubling in every three years on an average. It has not doubled in the last three years, on the contrary it is lower by some 10 pc from the level prevailing in Jan '08. I agree that much has changed in the times since then but in a way it has changed for the better in terms of equity values in nominal terms ie in terms of value in rupee terms as the currencies have diluted all over the world. Since the value of counter has diminished ie of rupee, why should you not discount the hard assets the companies had then and added since then. This itself suggests that what you buy today is far more cheap than we think. If Onions and Potatoes can be costly why rest of the things would not, if milk and cheese will be costly why rest would not, if petrol and power will be costly why rest would not, if gold and silver will be costly why rest would not and most of all if the incomes will be more why the companies would not make more money through their operations. So, my dear friend, be absolutely comfortable in betting in market which only can keep your money's worth intact which is losing value where ever you keep it deposited, even in the bank's vaults or banks coffers.

Please, however, don't blame me for any short term hiccups that you may encounter but I have told you all above in the hope that you do not miss the bigger run that may come any time without warning and the potential for which is created in times of bad mood prevailing for reasons beyond economic sense due to political and other environmental considerations.

With best wishes,

Krishnakumar Khandelwal

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